Today’s Trading Plan: Fed Day for Traders

Technical Outlook:

• Decent bounce yesterday off of the rising trend-line from the March lows. 
• Today is Fed Day, and the FOMC Statement will come out at 2pm followed by a 2:30pm Press Conference. I suspect the market action will be somewhat muted until then. 
• Volume on SPY yesterday was somewhat below average. 
• VIX saw heavy resistance kick in on 15.64 yesterday and result in a hard drop – down 3.8% to 14.81. 
• Strong pop out of the T2108 with a 10% rise to 39% (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average). 
• It is amazing how difficult of a time the market has in mounting any signficiant selling pressures against this market. The last wave happened in September/October of last year, and despite hardly any growth this year, the market is giving up very little ground to the downside, which obviously creates a massive stalemate. 
• 2072 on SPX remains the key for the bears going forward. Break that, and you have a confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. 
• Nice double bottom on the 30 minute SPX chart, but will run into resistance around 2107-10 range. 
• Greece continues to dominate the headlines and still the major mover of the market. Nothing is getting resolved but usually politicians find a short-term fix so they can insure their own re-election. No matter how ill-advised the agreement might be. 
• The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Trades:

• Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
• Added UPRO as a bounce play at 68.84.
• 10% short / 10% long / 80% cash. 
• Remain short XYL at 36.16.
• I’ll consider adding 1-2 new short position to the portfolio today, but price really needs to break below  2072. 
• Also willing to play the bounce with a 3x ETF to the upside. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: