Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- Europe is trading 0.7% lower.
- Asian markets traded 0.5% higher.
- US futures are trading moderately lower.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago PMI (9:45am), Pending Home Sales Index (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (11am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Markets yesterday finished lower for the fourth straight day and fifth out of the last six sessions.
- Rallied more than sixteen points in the last hour and a half to only finish down nominally.
- Huge doji hammer on the SPX and SPY.
- SPX is officially in oversold territory now (short-term).
- At some point in the near future it is likely we will test those lows again that were formed intraday yesterday.
- SPX is continuing to price in the strong possibility that we are going over the “Fiscal Cliff” on Tuesday.
- Expect further selling to ensue if relations continue to deteriorate between both sides. The outcome between both parties at the White House this morning will be key for the market.
- On the flip side, if we are surprised by some kind of mutual agreement between now and the end of the year, expect a major rip higher in the markets – likely 30-40 points on the SPX.
- We are gapping down this morning and that tends to see a decent chance at a red-to-green move in the market.
- The critical level of 1411 still holds, but cannot afford to give up much more ground before allowing this market to slip in bearish territory.
- Weekly chart still looks bearish overall with the failure at overhead resistance keeping the market from progressing higher.
- The 30-min chart had gone decidedly bearish with a new lower-low and end to the previous uptrend.
- 1448 remains the key level for the bulls to achieve and break through and put this market decisively back in their corner.
- Will see continued low levels of volume from now until the end of the year.
- The thought is, if the House can’t pass their own Plan B, how will it ever pass a compromise between between Boehner and Obama.
- VIX flirted with 20 yesterday but finished back below at 19.47.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Stopped out of BSBR at $7.15 from 7.03 for a 1.7% gain.
- Stopped out of WYNN at $110.40 from 113.57 for a -2.79% loss.
- Remain long VMC at $53.01
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:

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