Today’s Trading Plan: Directional Complacency

Technical Outlook:

• Despite the “No” vote by the Greeks, the market managed to erase most of the losses on the day. 
• Overnight futures rallied hard, but has give back a majority of those gains as we head towards the open. 
• 200-day moving average on SPY has been very, very strong – holding all three times it was tested in the past five trading sessions. 
• SPX managed to close right on the 5-day moving average. 
• It appears that the market is on the verge of a new leg lower, but the intraday price action has been very sloppy and creating some questionable candle on the daily chart. 
• Volume picked back up after the weak holiday volume on Thursday. Though I would have expected the volume to be much stronger in the aftermath of the Greek Referendum. 
• VIX Lost much of its momentum only finishing up 1.3% at 17.01. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) also recovered sharply off of the lows to finish down 6.8% at 27%.
• Potential double bottom on 30 minute chart of SPX. Will confirm at 2086.
• Greece remains a significant headline risk to the upside and downside. Be ready to respond accordingly. 
• Bears need to get price back below Monday’s lows to re-inspire the bears, while the Bulls need to climb back and over Thursday’s highs, for starters. 
• 2039 is another major support level to watch here. 
• The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Trades:

• Added two new short positions yesterday. 
• Did not close out any positions yesterday. Came into the day 100% cash. 
• 20% short / 80% cash. 
• Will look to add 1-2 new positions today to the portfolio. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: