Today’s Trading Plan: Deciding On Plans For December

Technical Outlook:

• Second straight day of consolidation that saw price pullback to the 10-day moving average and hold, and close just above the 5-day moving average. 
• This is a pattern that I have seen unfold consistently over the past five weeks that ultimately results in another push higher. It remains to be seen with today’s job report whether that will be the outcome yet again. 
• Declining resistance off of the May highs continues to provide resistance for this market at 2119. 
• Volume fell off noticeably yesterday during the sell-off, as the volume continues to trend lighter and lighter on SPY. 
• SPX uptrend shows that the uptrend is still intact off of the September lows with now clear threat to the downside for current price action. 
• Despite the sell-off yesterday, VIX managed to drop 3% down to 15.05. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) continues to consolidate at its recent highs of the past month. 
• A close above 2079 would mark the sixth straight week SPX has finished higher. 
• A lot of talk on a strong jobs report that the Fed wants to now raise rates in December. I’ll believe it when I see it. 
• The five day moving average was tested for the sixth time in the past eight trading sessions and has held on still. 
• I still maintain, that it will be difficult to see any sizable pullback in SPX until VIX gets back down into the 11-12 area – this has been the area, where historically, the indicator has bounced hard off of. 
• While it would make sense to see the market pullback here, it doesn’t have to, and don’t think that you can force the market to do so either. Loading up on short positions is trying to stand in front of a locomotive, and expecting it to stop in time. 
• SPX has been overbought for almost a month now, which goes on to justify that the market can remain overbought longer than you can remain solvent. 
• Look for the 200-day moving average to offer a strong level of support going forward. 
• Seasonally this is the strongest time for the stock market so a major rally like what we are seeing, is no big surprise and not at all uncommon. 

My Trades:

• Added one new swing-trade to the portfolio yesterday (long)
• Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
• 70% Long / 30% Cash
• Remain long: AAPL at $116.98, AAL at $46.02, CRM at $79.25, FDX at $157.91, PAY at $30.77, IWM at $118.08
• May add one additional position, but could also curb long exposure today depending on market action. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: