Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.0% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), S&P Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10), State Street Investor Confidence (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Huge rally off of the lows yesterday resulting in a 75% recovery. 
  • Rally occurred off of the trend-line off of the December 2012 lows. 
  • Also managed to reclaim the 50-day moving average as well. 
  • SPX resulted in a hammer candle today and a strong potential for a bounce higher today. 
  • However, the price action is still below key resistance which is why I’ve remained bearish at this point, but that bearishness is on thin ice at this point. 
  • VIX rose 7.6% to 15.98 yesterday. 
  • Higher-low on the SPX 30-minute chart, and the potential for a base that could be developing. 
  • SPX is looking at a possible negative month – the second such month in the last three months. 
  • The rather large swings in price action on all the major indices indicates that we are not dealing with a healthy market at the moment. This is a time to preserve capital or at the very least lessen one’s long exposure. 
  • There is very little support between current price and the August lows at 1904.
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-30-14

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