Today’s Trading Plan: Can the Bears Fight Off 2100

Technical Outlook:

• SPX rallied a meager 4 points on Friday to close just a shade below 2103, giving up much of its mornings gains throughout the trading session. 
• Declining resistance off of the June highs are in play and could be broken today. 
• For the first time during this 4-day rally, SPY is looking at a gap down and will have to see if the dip buyers emerge despite European markets being well in the red today. 
• Friday continued the trend of July 1st being bullish. Now up 23 of the last 27 years. 
• Volume on SPY fell off on Friday, due mostly to the holiday weekend. However, volume was still slightly above average. 
• Today’s open could result in a possible bearish kicker, though, the weakness will have to continue to the downside throughout the trading session, in order for that to confirm on SPY. 
• Biggest concern for bulls here is the inability to smash through the all-time highs and maintain a trend above 2100. For the last 16 months, the rallies have died above 2100 and resulted in hard sell-offs. 
• VIX continues to melt away with a 5.5% move down to 14.77. That same week, it had been trading above 26. A massive deterioration in volatility. 
• T2108 showing a lower-high as well managing only a 4.3% move on Friday and 59% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average. 
• At the close on Friday, SPX 30 minute chart was forming what appeared to be a bull flag. That will drastically change with the weakness that is being seen at the open today. 
• Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

• Added two new positions to the portfolio Friday. 
• Did not close out any swing-trades on Friday. 
• Will add 1-2 new positions to the portfolio today based on market direction. 
• Best risk/reward currently is to the downside. 
• Currently 20% Short / 80% Cash
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: