• SP 500 Market Analysis 11-10-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Significant pullback that saw price on SPX pull back 1% yesterday . 
  • The converged 20 and 200-day moving averages will be a key testing point for the bulls today should the sell-off continue for a fifth straight day. 
  • Volume on SPY increased for a second straight day yesterday and came in at average levels for the first time since 10/22. 
  • Four straight days of selling as is currently being seen, hasn’t taken place since late September. 
  • VIX popped a notable 15.3% yesterday to close at 16.52. 
  • The VIX also closed above the 200-day moving average, which has shown to be a difficult task of late. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) dropped 10.3% down to 55% which is the bottom end of the range that it has been stuck in since mid-October. 
  • SPX managed to break and close below the 10-day moving average – something that hasn’t occurred since the rally started. 
  • There is a chance that this is the start of a bigger pullback. Since reaching rally highs last Tuesday, SPX has pulled back nearly 2%. At this point, trying to get heavily short is still not the best way to manage risk in this market. 
  • A rate hike is expected out of December’s Fed meeting. However, I still would not be surprised if the Fed backed out of raising it yet again. 
  • 30 minute chart of SPX is creating a lower-low, and lower-high. 
  • Declining resistance off of the May highs at 2119-2120 continues to play as a force in this market. So far, price has been unable to break through this. 
  • I still maintain, that it will be difficult to see any sizable pullback in SPX until VIX gets back down into the 11-12 area – this has been the area, where historically, the indicator has bounced hard off of. 


My Trades:

  • Added one new long swing position to the portfolio yesterday.  
  • Closed out AAL at $44.98 for  a 2% loss. 
  • 70% Long / 30% Cash
  • Remain long: AAPL at $116.98, CRM at $79.25, FDX at $157.91, PAY at $30.77, IWM at $118.08, XLF at $24.44.
  • May add one additional position, but could also curb long exposure today depending on market action. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-10-15

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