Technical Outlook:

  • After four straight days higher, SPX had its first down day in the form of a doji candle. A non-threatening. 
  • SPX managed to hold the 50-day moving average and now looking at strong gap up that will take price, at the open, to the 2120 resistance area where many rallies have died at. 
  • From 2120 through 2129 the resistance is extremely heavy in the market. 
  • Besides making new highs, breaking above the June highs will be critical for the market as it would break the downtrend that started off of the May highs and essentially establish a higher-high while also nullifying the head and shoulders pattern no the daily chart. 
  • VIX dropped 1.1% down to 13.23. The key area here is the lower 12’s. 
  • Prior to today’s gap up, SPX was beginning to look distributive on the 30 minute chart. That goes away if the gap higher can hold today. 
  • Volume perked up a slight bit yesterday but still below average on the daily chart. 
  • While the market is range bound, it is difficult to add additional positions to the portfolio because there is no sustained trend to play. Instead remaining nimble and flexible to ever changing market conditions is absolutely key.
  • Double bottom on 30 minute SPX chart has been confirmed with Monday’s move above 2085. This could create a target as high as 2025. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-16-15

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