• SP 500 Market Analysis 11-23-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Sloppy day for stocks on Friday as it was options expiration and following the initial burst higher at the market’s open, the market remained in a slow sell-off the rest of the day. 
  • Breaking the declining resistance off of the May highs of this year, is of high importance here to the sustainability of this market. 
  • Establishing a convincing higher-high on the current rally is of high importance here, otherwise bulls risk getting trapped in consolidation for the foreseeable future. 
  • A case can be made that SPX is in the midst of forming a monstrosity of an inverse head and shoulders pattern going back to July of this year. Breaking aforementioned declining resistance level will confirm the pattern as well. 
  • Volume on SPY on Friday was below average, as the rally it initially sported, had no legs to it. 
  • This is the Thanksgiving holiday week, which is traditionally a very bullish week for trading. The markets will be closed on Thursday and only open until 1pm on Friday. 
  • Oil continues to weaken, and the oil charts in general look rather bullish as well. But don’t be surprised to see a massive short squeeze in the weeks ahead. 
  • VIX droped another 8.9% on Friday to close at 15.47 and below recent recent support at the 200-day moving average. 
  • Another bull flag forming on the SPX 30 minute chart currently. 
  • For twelve years straight, the market over the course of the last 30 trading days has yielded a net positive gain, and reinforcing the concept of the “Santa Rally”.
  • A rate hike is expected out of December’s Fed meeting. However, I still would not be surprised if the Fed backed out of raising rates yet again. They’ve been doing just that for years now. 


My Trades:

  • Sold FDX at $164.05 for a 3.9% gain on Friday. 
  • Sold ASML at 91.50 for a 1.7% loss on Friday. 
  • Did not add any new positions on Friday. 
  • Will consider adding one to two new long position to the portfolio today, while also managing the profits on existing positions. 
  • 60% Long / 40% Cash
  • Remain long: MSFT at $53.88, FB at $104.85, TSO at $113.98, BIDU at $199.21, INFN  at $21.65 and one additional trade.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-23-15

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