Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading flat.
  • Asian markets traded -1.0% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Market breakout of the SPX on Friday has pushed price outside of consolidation. 
  • At this point, even though it seems completely irrational, the trade is to the long-side until proven otherwise. 
  • Market has creeped back into short-term overbought. On mid-to-long-term indicators, we have remained overbought for months now.
  • There’s not much in the way overhead of the market not hitting all-time highs from a technical analysis standpoint. 
  • A pullback to the 1450-70’s seems possible once in fact the market does determine it is time to pullback. 
  • Three straight days of closing near the highs of the consolidation range forecasted the move on Friday. 
  • Volume was non-existent on Friday, due to the snow storms hitting the northeast. 
  • A close below 1495 is really what the bears need in order to fuel the bearish fire. 
  • Volume was slightly off yesterday. 
  • On the 30min chart of SPX, we have a slight breakout. 
  • The gappiness in both directions at the top of a major trend is not a healthy sign for the market. 
  • VIX back at 13’s. 
  • Worries about European economies starting to re-emerge. 
  • The channel that we are currently trading in looks very similar to the channel that we traded in last year from June through September. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 2-11-13

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