• SP 500 Market Analysis 4-10-13

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 1.2% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 0.4% higher.
  • US futures are slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), FOMC Minutes (9am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Treasury Budget (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • We managed to break out yet again (above 1564), but well off of the day’s highs after an afternoon sell-off. 
  • Volume on an up day was stronger than what we have seen of late. 
  • The potential for a short-term double-top exists if we can not break above last week’s highs. 
  • The 10 & 20 day moving averages offer very little value recently. 
  • A pullback to 1538 would tell the lower trend line of the rising channel. 
  • We ended the “Christmas Light” trading from the previous 14-days of trading. 
  • VIX back inside of the 12’s. 
  • The Bollinger Bands are likely to restrict any significant moves, but should also start expending more as price movements upward become more aggressive. 
  • Be careful of holding stocks that are overextended in their price movements. Best way to determine this is by using Bollinger Bands and monitoring the stock’s behavior once it get’s outside the upper band. 
  • Typically I sell a stock if historically, it tends to sell off once it goes outside the upper band. 
  • Any close below 1538, would breakdown the market below the consolidation level and usher in a new wave of bearishness.
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-10-13

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