Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.1% higher. 
  • European markets are trading -0.4% lower. 
  • US futures are trading -0.5% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Consumer Sentiment (9:55), Farm Prices (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX finally managed to break its five-day losing streak with a mild bounce. 
  • I’m looking for something more that will force bears to cover their positions. 
  • 10-day moving average yesterday represented the highs as the SPX could not break above it. 
  • More weakness today in the form of a gap down – watch for a possible gap close as bears tend to struggle with the gap down days. 
  • Rising trend-line off of the November 2012 lows is at 1668. Unlikely to be tested today, but it is my next level of significant support for this market. 
  • Look for mild support at 1687, which is definitely in play today. 
  • 20-day and 50-day moving averages have come together and could offer a respectable amount of support at 1680-2. 
  • Volume dipped yesterday. 
  • I am looking to take gains aggressively going forward in my long positions rather than letting them run and simply tightening the stops. I expect this market to remain choppy going forward, but for now we are well overdue for a bounce. 
  • 30-minute chart on the SPY is sporting a nice head and shoulders pattern. 
  • VIX rose higher despite the bounce to 14.06. 
  • A 1-2 week period of consolidation at this point would not be surprising considering the price action that we’ve seen after similar run ups this year on the SPX. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-27-13

 

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