Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower. 
  • European markets are trading flat.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), FOMC Minutes (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Sold off for a second consecutive day and now trading below the 10-day moving average. 
  • I’m expecting to see some kind of bounce attempt today. The key will be whether the bulls can hold it or whether the bears will see it as another shorting opportunity. The outcome will go a long ways in determining the current mood of this market. 
  • The 20-day moving average in the past has been a place where the dip buyers have come in strong. SPX almost tested it yesterday before pushing a bit higher into the close. 
  • There is a very short-term trend-line on SPX off of the 6/12 lows. This trend-line marks where the market bounced yesterday. 
  • A dilapidated head and shoulders pattern was confirmed and played out yesterday. 
  • VIX went back up to the 50-day moving average which has been where significant reversals have occurred in the past. 
  • I could see a legitimate pullback taking us back to the rising trend-line (short-term) which currently sits at 1940
  • Volume was very strong yesterday. 
  • I don’t see any reason to be net short on this market or piling into any new shorts at the moment considering there is no damage on SPX. 
  • Important support is at 1944, as a break of that price level would establish a new lower-low.
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-9-14

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