Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.6% lower.   
  • Asian markets traded -0.9% lower. 
  • US futures are moderately lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury Budget (2pm) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Extremely light day of trading due to Veterans  Day’s and it being a holiday for banks yesterday. 
  • As a result we traded in a sideways pattern, which is the second day in a row that we’ve seen this. 
  • Still remained fixed below the 200-day moving average. 
  • Typically a dead-cat bounce is a ‘snap-back’ reaction in the market. It doesn’t typically occur after days of consolidation. We may need to see additional selling if that dead-cat bounce is going to occur. 
  • Near-term support levels are are at 1374-5 and if that breaks there’s support at 1356. Both support levels are considered minor support levels. 
  • If there is a rally in the coming days, I’d look for 1404 to be targeted resistance. 
  • We are undoubtedly oversold short-term and long-term. 
  • Price is back inside the lower-bollinger band. 
  • A lower-low was established at 1403 as well as a previous lower-high. All bearish developments of an established downtrend. 
  • Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year. 
  • The 30-minute chart show a nice block of consolidation of late. 
  • VIX has been all over the map of late, and dropped 10% yesterday and settled at 16.37.

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Remain short Short INVN at $11.31, SODA at $35.69, LULU at $70.00, CAKE at $33.26.
  • Will watch today’s action and look to cover 1-2 of my shorts on any major sell-off. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-13-12

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