Technical Analysis:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) put together another strong rally, but under the surface, there was some signs of deterioration in the quality of the rally with the breadth to the upside being slightly outdone by declining issues. Typically, on a day like Friday, advancing issues should be rising on a 2:1 clip, at least.  
  • But on other indicators, CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) snapped a 2-day winning streak and was was back in sync with the market dropping 7% and down to 11.75. Watch for a retest of the lows made last week, and whether it tries, once again to bounce at that level. 
  • SPX 2300 will be on on the radar for the bulls this week, as well as the major milestone 20,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which is less than 250 points away. 
  • This Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will be releasing its FOMC Statement. Nobody expects to keep rates unchanged, and will see its first rate hike since December of last year. 
  • It is important to note that last year, the market rallied the day the rate change took hold, but thereafter, it sold off hard, and sold off fast. 
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) has dropped for a second consecutive day, but still remains well above average. 
  • All four major indices continue to make new all-time highs. 
  • Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures (/CL) is trading at highs not seen since July of 2015. 
  • 30 minute chart of SPX is on a non-stop run over the past week that has lacked a pullback of any kind. 
  • As I’ve said before, oil only matters when it is rallying. When it sells off, the market completely shrugs off its impact on the economy. 

My Trades:

  • Sold Facebook (FB) at $119.49 on Friday for a 2.1% profit. 
  • I added one new swing-trade to the portfolio. 
  • May look to add some short exposure as a hedge against current positions. 
  • I will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
  • I am currently 50% Long / 50% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12 12 16