Technical Outlook:

  • A significant technical breakdown played out yesterday on the S&P 500 (SPX) with price breaking down and below major long-term support at 2120. 
  • Bear flag was also confirmed by yesterday’s price move. 
  • Volume saw a notable uptick yesterday as well on SPDRs S&P 500 Trust (SPYwith volume well above recent averages. 
  • In the past, SPX has continuously found support at the 2120 level, but this time it broke down and, more importantly, closed below 2120 support. 
  • SPX has been down for 6 straight days. Something that hasn’t happened in ages. It is likely nearing a bounce or at the very least, a green day of some type. 
  • For most of the election cycle, the market has ignored the possibility of Hillary Clinton losing to Donald Trump in the general election. As a result, the market is frantically trying to price in the strengthening possibility of this happening. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIXVolatility has its highs closing print since 6/28/16 – with the VIX popping 8.8% to close at 18.56. 
  • FOMC Statement coming out at 2pm today. Expect some volatility from the release and whether they point towards a likely December rate hike or back off some. 
  • It is not expected that the Fed will hike rates today. 
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) will likely test its rising trend-line off of the February lows today. 
  • The election is six days from today, and there will be more and more moves like what we saw on Friday where major moves occur out of nowhere, and is completely unexpected. 

My Trades:

  • Added one new short position to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Closed out ORCL yesterday at 38.45 for a 0.2% loss. 
  • Closed out DIS yesterday at 92.33 for a 1.4% loss. 
  • Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Currently 20% Short / 80% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11 2 16

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