Technical Analysis:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) attempted to bounce yesterday but fell short at the market close as it gave up its gains at the close to finish in the red for a 9th straight day. 
  • That marked the first time since 1980 that SPX closed lower for nine consecutive days. 
  • The 200-day moving average was successfully held, as well as the lower channel shown in the analysis provided in the chart below. 
  • Major bounce expected today with SPX futures (/ES) rallying roughly 30 points ahead of the opening bell on news that FBI isn’t willing to indict Hillary Clinton. 
  • Ironically, the massive gap up is likely to see price hover around and just below the 2120 area on SPX, which represents massive resistance for the index. 
  • I don’t expect price action to do much today after equity markets open up, and expect it to be either flat or give up some of the day’s gains. More gains to the upside following the price action of the first 30 minutes of the day is the least likely scenario. 
  • SPX is following a very similar pattern to what we saw right before the Brexit, where stocks rallied from 2085 (ironically the same closing price on SPX this past Friday) and closed 27 points higher. Today we are looking at the same exact thing. 
  • Call me crazy, but this market, with the rally that is setting up today, feels like Brexit all over again with the market setting up for another major surprise vote – this time in the form of a Donald Trump election victory. If that happens, you can expect a very similar market flush to the one seen with Brexit.
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY)  was up  from the previous day’s reading and well above recent averages. 
  • First time in the history of CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) where it has risen nine straight days. I closed just a shade below the declining trend-line fof of the February highs. Safe to say that the SPX rally today will put an end to the VIX streak.
  • Bullish divergence yesterday in the T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) as it managed to move higher the past two trading sessions. 

My Trades:

  • Day-traded UPRO on Friday for a 1% profit. 
  • Did not add any new overnight positions to the portfolio. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Currently 10% Short / 90% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11 7 16

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