My Trading Journal for the Stock Market Today: 

And by force, I actually mean dip buyers. They buy on the dip every single, freakin’, time. It is fascinating really. Every-time there is a sell-off, the market immediately responds before the market closes the day. For the bears, they are literally being plagued with Jedi mind tricks on a daily basis. Simple sway of the hand and a “This is not the sell-off you are seeking” comment sends the bears into covering their short positions every time. 

I wish I could say that the rally will end on “this date” and at “this time” and for “this reason” but c’mon – nobody knows when this will finally top out. It feels like 2007, it feels like 1999 (cue Prince’s 1999) but to be honest, it felt that way at times in 2016, 2015, 2104 and… okay you get the picture. This rally is long overdue for a pullback, but like the well known saying goes, “This market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”So don’t try to nail this market top. Sure, hedge positions where necessary, but don’t start calling market tops and getting heavily short. 

For a moment there, SPX was actually trading below its 5-day moving average, but quickly recovered to actually finish 1 point higher on the day. I took some profits in a couple of trades that you can see below (in bold). The VIX continues to be a sad, sad, state of affairs. No matter the pop, it will get dropped. Every intraday rally gets sold. There is no higher-high on the chart – absolutely none, even though it has gotten close a few times, there has not been a single one to speak of since the November highs were put in place from late last year. Meanwhile, indices go up, but less than 2/3’s of stocks are even trading above their 40-day moving average, and that dropped by another 4% today alone. Right now it is sitting at 63%. Normally that reading would be coming in at around 80-85%. 

Finally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up ten straight days. yes TEN! That has only happened 15 times since 1900, and of those 15 times, this is the second weakest 10-day rally, only raking in 3.8%. 

Plenty of things to come out of this scratching your head. Best piece of advice I can give is to make good trades. Find solid risk reward scenarios. Let the market provide you with the opportunities. You don’t have to match this market’s return, just stay profitable. If you try to match it step for step, you will eventually fall with it step for step as well. Just keep being consistently profitable by managing the risk on your trades and you will do just fine. 

S&P 500 Chart

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance: 

• 3 long positions, 1 short position. 

Recent Stock Trade Closeouts:

• Flex Technologies (FLEX): Long at $15.62, closed at $16.57 for a 6.1% profit. 
• Broadcom (AVGO): Long at $208.30, closed at $210.89 for a 1.2% profit. 
• Baidu (BIDU): Long at $174.70, closed at $187.00 for a 7.0% profit. 
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Long at 33.20, closed at $32.50 for a 2.1% loss. 
• SPXU: Long at $17.58, closed at $17.24 for a 1.9% loss.
• Gold Miners ETF (GDX): Long at $25.22, closed at $25.04 for a -0.7% loss. 
• Corning (GLW): Long at $26.98, closed at $27.45 for a 1.7% profit. 
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Long at $127.74, closed at $129.86 for a 1.7% profit. 
• Marriott Int’l (MAR): Long at $86.16, closed at $87.51 for a 1.6% profit. 
• Microsoft (MSFT): Long at $63.45, closed at $64.09 for a 1% profit.