Battling It Out At The 200

Technical Outlook:

• Very intriguing trading session on Friday where the dip-buyers came in just at the nick-of-time to preserve the ever-so-slightly bullish dispositions of the charts. 
• The 200-day moving average, despite breaking intraday rallied to close above the MA at the end of day. 
• The trend-line off of the July lows managed to hold by end of day despite a break below during the trading session. 
• Nice doji hammer candle on SPY. 
• Volume saw a slight uptick yesterday on SPY. 
• VIX posted a nice divergence yesterday showing a decrease of 2.8% down to 13.39. A significant reversal from where it was trading at earlier in the session. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) dropped 4% down to 32%. 
• 30min SPX chart show how imperative that SPX holds last week’s lows at 2067. 
• Dow down 7 straight days – not seen since August 2011 – and down 12 out of the last 14 trading sessions. Very likely to see a bounce that holds today. 
• This is starting to become a regular phenomenon where the market is off to a nice start, the bears come in during the east coast lunch hour, and drive the market downward for the remainder of the day. 
• Huge convergence of moving averages right at current price level – this has has had a mildly bullish effect on the market the previous occurrences. 
• Solid support for SPX at the rising 200-day moving average – the last two tests have held strong on a closing basis.  
• With a higher-low off of the 200-day moving average and possibly a lower-high formed on Friday, you essentially have the making of a range inside of a range. 
• My biggest ongoing concern with the market right now is the inability to establish new, clear-cut all-time highs that leads to an expansion of price as well. Instead SPX gets bogged down in the 2120-2130’s range and reverses course each time. 

My Trades:

• Added one new long position on Friday.
• Closed out QLD at 76.51.
• 30% Long / 70% cash. 
• Remain long: FB at 94.71, MSFT at 47.48.
• Will look to add 1-2 new positions today if the market can find its footing again. Otherwise, I will manage my current positions and consider some short opportunities. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: