Fuinhaz $SPY read for June 20 2013

So as I write this the $SPY is to open .10 cents from the 50ma of 162.02. As many people look at that 50ma with such importance, they forget to give Fibonacci retracement levels a look, and end up not knowwing where is the most likely place for a possible bounce really is.

Yesterday a few minutes before the fed decision, as we hovered aroud the 165.55 level, I sent the following tweet.

“If the market takes off, then people should focus on a possible strong resistance at 166.88. Now if the Fed comes out and says what he really needs to say, then we will most likely drop to 164.47 and possibly 163.38.”

So the question today is. Will the market break below the 50ma? Not yet, I do see that many people will take some stocks short today, and will be slapped on the face when they failed to break down when the $SPY reach 161.83 which is where the next Fibonnaci support lays.

We will then have the bulls calling this another buy the dip opportunity and saying that this was a one day thing, like we usually see on fed days.

Their excitement will end once we push back up to 163.38 (Fibonacci resistance level for me) and gap fill for everyone else. Bulls will be bulls and will always defend their precious moving averages. But bears are patient, and eventhough bulls will pump this market up until it is too late for retail investors to exit, bears will come in and start pilling up on the shorts, and will take this market for a nice ride low.

Again, I am not a bear, I just give out my explanation, and I back it up with technical analysis. Whichever way you want to interpret is up to you. I have been wrong before, and I can come out and apologize, How many people who write daily blogs are as sincere as I am?

$SPY 1st support is 161.83, 2nd support 159.86 and 3rd is 159.43 (If we cross this level, then we are not coming back).

$SPY 1st target is 163.38 and 2nd is 164.47, 3rd is 165.55, and 4th just for fun is 167.19.