Fuinhaz $SPY read for February 5 2013

Today’s gap in the $SPY is a no brainer.  I will be looking for the pop to top out around 150.70 (give or take). In that case the $SPY will form the other shoulder of the pattern and we finally drift down to complete the 2.5-to 3.5% pullback that I have been talking for a while.

One other good piece of information is that the $FXY (

) will open under the 105.45 level. I will use this YEN/USD trust to help me confirm my head and shoulder pattern theory. So once it crosses back above the 105.45 level, I know we have a definitive pullback. Once it crosses above the 105.45 level, my target will be 110.20, and at that time I expect the pullback in the market to line up with my $SPY and $SPX expectations. Remember I also look at the $XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR), to help me time the market, and in the case of the $XLF, I am expecting it to drop as much as 16.59 which represents the 50ma.

Ok so let me make this easier to see. In order for the pullback to be over. And when I say over, I mean things continue to develop in the same way that we have been seeing lately, with no surprise wars, angry congressmen, or greedy European union socialist government feud.

I will be looking for the following indicators:

$SPY needs to hold the 145.70 Fibonacci level.

$SPX needs to hold the 1450.65 Fibonacci level.

$XLF needs to hold the 16.59 (50ma level)

$FXY needs to top out on a short term basis to 110.20 Fibonacci level.

Ok now let’s go to today’s numbers.

$SPY 1st support is 149.69, 2nd support 149.28 and 3rd is 148.25.