Fuinhaz $SPY read for April 24 2013

Another monster day yesterday, even with a mini flash crash in the middle of the day. Today’s durable good, did not helped but something tells mes we could still pop a couple of points higher.

At the same time that I am almost convinced we will make new highs, I cannot ignore that on an 30 minute chart one could interpret that the $SPY is about to start forming the left arm of a head and shoulder pattern, as I show it here.

Again this is just a theory until it is proven wrong by the market violently moving higher again. The $NYMO (McCleallan Oscillator) is also at a level that it has sold hard once it reached the current level. Of course, it can continue to move higher and reach the over bought territory. It can also stay a couple of days above that level. So I advise caution with new longs.

Looking at the $NYMO an the $SPY charts above, I also want to bring your attention to the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at the bottom of each chart. Notice that it is on the overbought territory  for the $NYMO, and not yet in the $SPY. On the $NYMO, one could assume, that today’s bad Durable goods report is a sign, that the bull run is over, or a couple of days away from it. And on the $SPY, one could still make a case for another pop before we fade into period of profit taking.

$SPY 1st support is 157.33 2nd support 156.62 and 3rd is 155.54.

$SPY 1st target is 158.80, 2nd is 159.71, 3rd is 160.37(Educated Guess).

Trade what you see not what you think