As Wayne and Garth would say while playing street hockey, after a car drove by, “Game On!” The Bear Trap I posted about a few days ago is over, and whatever-the-heck this market wants to do may now resume in whatever direction it will go.
I’ve noted on this chart that the volume in the left circle is nice and high with a doji candle. This is turnaround volume, people. We did turn around for 3 days, and now it’s time to see if the Bulls can hold the final line. The right circle marks raised volume on the peak-candle, but wasn’t really that high. Which tells me selling wasn’t all that serious. Maybe it’s not over for the Bulls just yet?
My Iron Monger senses have detected a trader sentiment of annoyance with this channel we’re in. Meanwhile, I hear the engineers in my office that are near retirement, and are closely watching their 401k’s as they decide how much longer they’ll need to keep working before they outlive their money. They check up on their favorite finance website and freak out over how much the Dow has moved during the day.
The time is near. Ok, ok, many of us thought we’d be out of this Bear Flag by September. But there is a silver lining (too bad SLV doesn’t have one right now!): the longer this channel drags on, the better the chances are for an upside breakout. Note I speak of “chances,” not “certainties.” It’s always about risk management, especially when you don’t really know your audience.
I’ve been working on my day-trading and getting some good practice with positive results. Edgy the Investor should be ready for Prime Time, whenever the Opportunity finally presents her ugly, bucktoothed face.
But still looking to the longer term, I have my fingers crossed that we will break to the upside. Europe (Greece) is still a wildcard, probably already face down on the table. Our own Fed has announce Operation Twist, even though everyone and their taxi driver has stated that it didn’t work last time (either). But I believe OT’s real purpose is to drive the Dollar back up to make way for more stimulus (that’s Quantitative Easing for you voters in Rio Linda). It’s coming, I have…..foreseen it!
However!!! My trades are day-trades only for now until I see some reason to hold overnight, which I don’t. Even with the nonstop hamburger that was produced today, through to the close, I refuse to hold overnight in hopes of another gap-down. I’m following trends on a shorter time frame than I’m used to, but it’s working so far. So this macro stuff on the daily’s is just noise for now. My advice is to stay nimble or stay out. But you already knew that, didn’t you?
Cheers!
