Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 1.5% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 1.0% higher. 
  • US futures are up strong ahead of the bell – nearly 1%

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Existing Home Sales (10am), Housing Market Index (10am) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • As noted last week, this market is well oversold on both the daily and weekly time frames and as a result is setting up for a multi-day bounce into the historically bullish and shortened Thanksgiving holiday week. 
  • If you still are short heading into today, I’d avoid being short longer than you have to be. The likelihood of the market  pushing lower throughout the week, is possible but not likely. 
  • On Friday, the SPX bounced off of the lower line of the downward channel it has been trading in. 
  • As an initial target, I would expect that this market could go as high as 1404 before encountering any significant push back from the bears. 
  • SPX is badly in need of a new lower-high, which is something we haven’t seen since dropping 75+ points from the previous lower-high. 
  • Volume tends to be light holiday weeks, and will get lighter as the week carries on. 
  • Thursday the market is closed, and Friday it is only open until 1pm. 
  • Also worth noting, is that this bounce will come off of the bollinger band on the weekly chart, as previously noted, and similar to what we saw on 6/1. 
  • 30-min chart shows a disfigured inverse head and shoulders pattern. 
  • VIX dropped hard below 17. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Covered CLNE at $12.05 from $12.88 for a 6.44% gain. 
  • Went long MWE at $48.00
  • Went long CMCSA at $35.32
  • Went long ITW at $59.04
  • Went long AET at 40.80.
  • May add an additional 1-2 new long positions on intraday dips. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-19-12

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