Technical Analysis:

  • Wow, what a rally, yesterday. Honestly, I don’t think anybody came into the trading day thinking that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would pop off 300 points or that  the S&P 500 (SPX) would rally nearly 30 points. Nonetheless it did, and is why you always have to be prepared for any and all situations as it pertains to the stock market. 
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) came in strong yesterday and well above recent averages, which helps confirm the validity of the move from yesterday. 
  • Breadth was solid yesterday, however, there was an anomaly with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) where despite the huge market rally, it rallied hard off of the intraday lows to finish 3.7% higher on the day. 
  • Strong improvement in the T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average), with a reading of 72%. Ideally it needs to move back above the 80% level. 
  • 30 minute chart of SPX is straight parabolic and could use a little bit of time to work off the intraday overbought conditions. 
  • 3 out of 4 indices hit new all-time highs yesterday, with Nasdaq (COMPQ) only being a breath away from following suite. 
  • As I’ve said before, oil only matters when it is rallying. When it sells off, it completely shrugs off its impact on the economy. 
  • The Federal Reserve has no choice but to raise rates next week. They are out of excuses and have put themselves into a corner. So far the market hasn’t paid a rate hike any thought. Last year the market didn’t sell off until after the FOMC Statement. 

My Trades:

  • Added 1 new long position to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Covered my short hedge in Agilent Technologies (A) at 44.93 for a 3.5% loss. 
  • I will be increasing the stop-losses on my current and profitable long positions. 
  • I will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
  • I am currently 50% Long / 50% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12 8 16