Is it a top in oil?
Maybe.
Maybe not.
What I do know is that USO (United States Oil Fund for those wondering) is having a horrible time trying to push through the 200-day moving average. If you look, at the weekly chart, this commodity has surged higher and since the February bottoms, and hardly hindered at all. Not until the daily chart met the 200-day MA.
And so far the moving average is winning. The last six trading sessions has seen oil unable to break through it.
Now to the bulls credit, USO isn’t selling off hard each time it has been rejected by the MA. The commodity doesn’t appear to be rolling over just yet. But what is happening is that the bulls simply have not found the fortitude just yet to push though the MA.
Until that happens, I wouldn’t even dare consider a long position.
The USO analysis:
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