Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):
- Europe is trading 0.2% lower.
- Asian markets traded 0.5% higher.
- US futures are slightly higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am),
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Yesterday the SPX had what looked like a solid day of gains in the books only to give up over 90% of those gains before the end of the day.
- The candle stick pattern formed yesterday on the SPY would typically be considered bearish, but I don’t think it will weigh much on market direction going forward. I’ve seen patterns like this like on 6/7 and 6/11 and the market primarily ignores the bearish candles.
- I mentioned the need for a pullback yesterday, and yesterday’s pullback may have been exactly that, it just occurred on an intraday basis. But the move was in excess of 10 points which is significant.
- So yesterday’s intraday pullback may have been all the bulls needed for a pullback in this market.
- It has been six days since we finished a day in the red. That’s hard to do and ultimately sustain. Last time we saw this back in August, we traded slightly lower for the next 3 days in a consolidating manner.
- Volume remains steady.
- Just a hair-away from being short-term overbought.
- 8-day exponential moving average has provided a lot of rising support for this trending market. A break and close below it, would be a cause for concern.
- There’s a negative divergence on the RSI and other similar indicators where it failed to make a higher high against the previous highs of this month.
- We are seeing similar price action to what what occurred off of the June lows. Assuming as much, it would lead me to believe we’ll see a mild pullback in the next 3 days.
- There’s an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on SPX daily chart that is confirmed at 1422.
- Price action showing a downtrend off of the October highs was broken Monday on SPX.
- Current uptrend off of the November lows is steep, but not atypical for new rallies. Overtime the up-ward trend-line will flatten out some.
- 8-day EMA continues to provide rising support for the markets in the short-term.
- Ideally for the bulls, if price action can close at or above 1429, the downtrend off of the September highs would be officially done and over with, as a new higher high would be established for the first time.
- Fiscal Cliff discussions continues to dominate the news.
- SPX currently has recaptured the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.
- VIX closed below 16.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Bought BSBR at $7.03
- Remain long SIG at $54.01, EW at $91.01, AL at $22.70, LULU at $73.01.
- I’ll be looking to add 1-2 new positions to the portfolio today.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:

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