Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading mixed but overall +0.3% higher. 
  • Asian markets finished +0.4% higher on the day. 
  • US futures are trading moderately higher ahead of the bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Quadruple Witching (Opex). 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Typical gap down, buy-the-dip to finish near break-even kind of day. 
  • One sign that showed me that the bulls are very much still in this market were the automatic buy programs that kicked in at the 10-day moving average.
  • Often times this is the first sign of defense by the bulls in a soft pullback for the market to bounce from. 
  • This pullback has been very healthy for the markets – orderly, low volume, and pulled us off of overbought levels as well as back inside the bollinger bands. 
  • 30-minute chart for SPX still has upward trend intact. 
  • Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 
  • Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
  • Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support. 
  • Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1410. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week. 
  • VIX at 14. 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold second 1/2 of GTAT position at $6.67. Overall made 1.6% on the trade. 
  • Stopped out of SHLD at $68.67 for a -4.1% loss. 
  • Bought TMO at $59.91. 
  • Bought LEAP at $6.45. 
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $111.00
  • Stop-loss for NLSN at $29.80.
  • Stop-Loss for WYNN increased to $111.50.
  • Stop-Loss for BEAV adjusted to $40.90. 
  • Stop-Loss for IACI moved to $52.25
  • Remain long IACI at $52.59, PNR at $43.85, BEAV at $40.75, WYNN at $107.47, NLSN at $28.70, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 


SP 500 Market Analysis 9-21-12