Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are mixed, but overall trading -0.4% lower. 
  • Asian markets mixed as well, finished flat on the day. 
  • US futures are trading flat with slight negative bias ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), FOMC Statement (12:30pm), FOMC Forecasts (2pm), Treasury Budget (2pm), Bernanke Press Conference (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Slight bump higher in yesterday’s market action. 
  • Beautiful bull-flag forming over the last four days on the SPX. A move beyond 1437, would represent a breakout on the daily. 
  • Should a sell-off ensue after the Fed action/comments today, look for support to come in at 1419. 
  • Expect a lot of volatility today with the FOMC statement coming out at 12:30pm est, followed by a senseless press conference at 2pm est. 
  • SPX still remains slightly overbought. 
  • Volume slightly elevated. Historically – its still unusually low, but picking up ‘some’ as we head into the final stretch of Q3 and into Q4.
  • Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1400. 
  • Test at 1440 resistance is in play today. While there isn’t a lot of resistance overhead, this is a minor resistance level worth noting. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a bearish divergence which is worth noting. 
  • 30-min chart shows the same bull-flag pattern as the daily with tight consolidation at the highs. 
  • VIX back below 16. . 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Took a long position in CRR at $72.27. 
  • Sold QIHU yesterday at $24.25 from 24.00 for a 1.0% gain. 
  • Bought NLSN at $28.70.
  • Bought WYNN at the close at $107.47.
  • May add a short position as a hedge to the portfolio today. 
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • Considering selling V after it looks very over-extended at this point. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $108.00
  • Stop-loss for FBHS at $25.90.
  • Stop-Loss for V at $125.85
  • Remain long CRR at $72.27, V at $127.18, FBHS at $24.54, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 


SP 500 Market Analysis 9-13-12