• SP 500 Market Analysis 9-12-12

Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading mixed but 0.3% higher. . 
  • Asian markets finished 1.4% higher.
  • US futures are trading moderately higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): FOMC Meeting Begins, MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Wholesale Trade (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Nice recovery yesterday after the previous day’s sell-off. 
  • Creates somewhat of a mini bull-flag pattern on the daily SPX. 
  • Volume seems to be picking up ‘some’ as we head into the final stretch of Q3 and into Q4. 
  • Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1400. 
  • Near-term resistance is at 1437. Additional Buying power should flow in once we break that level. 
  • If we pullback today, look for some dip buying opportunities around 1419. 
  • We are overbought as of yesterday’s close. 
  • Test at 1440 resistance is in play today. While there isn’t a lot of resistance overhead, this is a minor resistance level worth noting. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a bearish divergence which is worth noting. 
  • FOMC Statement occurs on an unusual Thursday at 12:30pm est (typically Tuesday or Wednesday). 
  • 30-min chart shows a nice uptrend now in place with higher-highs and higher-lows. 
  • VIX surged yesterday and now back above 16. 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Took a long position in CRR at $72.27. 
  • Bought QIHU at $24.00
  • Sold ALXA at $4.84 from $4.83 for a 0.2% gain. 
  • Sold CROX at $18.22 from $17.39 for a 4.8% gain. 
  • Looking to add 1-2 new positions today. May be open to 1 short hedge as well. 
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $108.00
  • Stop-loss for FBHS at $25.70.
  • Stop-Loss for V at $125.85
  • Remain long V at $127.18, FBHS at $24.54, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 

Charts:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-12-12

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