Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY (113.30), DELL (13.26), URBN (36.60), SNX (27.03)
BIAS: 44% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are up moderately this morning after soaring overnight. Nice pullback working as I right this.
- Asian and European markets up over 1%
- Oracle (ORCL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) earnings providing an additional catalyst for the markets to the upside.
- Pre-market action indicates that the market could open above 1130. The close is what is important to me here. Whether it can hold 1130 or not throughout the day is the big question.
- Main goal for the bears today would be just to sell this rally – as it stands right now we are looking at another repeat of the January/February equity sell-off that resulted in a huge rally thereafter. Similar chart pattern as well.
- Consumer Sentiment could save the bears if it doesn’t meet or beat expectations.
- Be careful about fading this market today, it has one of those feelings where if the bulls can hold these early morning gains, it could ramp up the S&P 20 points or more.
- Nasdaq is up 12 of the last 13 trading days – definitely overbought.
- Today is quadruple witching opex day.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Won’t be adding any additional short positions to the portfolio, unless the bulls give us a total meltdown today.
- Will cover all my short positions if this rally holds.
- Won’t go long right away – will wait for a pullback in equities before going long.