• SP 500 Market Analysis 6-29-12

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX made a strong recovery yesterday into the close, eliminating much of the weakness from earlier in the day. 
  • Today the market is experiencing additional strength off of positives out of Europe. 
  • A close above 1358-60 would be huge for market bulls. Would confirm that the upward trend is still intact and in full-force. 
  • Early morning strength puts us above 1335 and outside of the consolidated price range from the past 5 days. 
  • Volume continues to remain relatively light. 
  • Could see a lot of window dressing with today being the last trading day of the second quarter. 
  • Today’s strength puts the market back above the 10 & 50-day moving averages. 
  • Below 1306-1308 price level, will nullify the current rally off of the 6/4 lows. 
    • Would represent a ‘lower-low’ in the market. 
  • Bulls have in place a bullish island reversal on the SPY chart, which is very similar to the one that we put in on 6/1-6/5 and rallied thereafter for a two-week period. 
  • VIX just a shade below 20.

My Opinions & Trades:

  • I closed out the majority of my positions yesterday. 
  • Covered MOS at $53.91 from $53.07 for a -1.6% loss. 
  • Covered ABC at $38.75 from $37.58 for a -3.4% loss. 
  • Day-traded SLV for a -0.9% loss. 
  • Sold AMZN at $221.44 from $221.60 for a -0.1% loss. 
  • Sold AUTH at $4.20 from $4.13 for a 1.7% gain. 
  • Still long WNR at $20.51. 
  • After the market calms down from the initial burst higher, I’ll begin looking to add 1-3 new positions ot the portfolio. 

Charts:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-29-12

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