Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): ESV (42.84),
WTFC (37.15), SLAB (44.80), CERN (82.08), ALB (43.59), HIBB (26.65), WRC (40.95), QQQQ (45.83), NSIT (14.79)
BIAS: 93% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Ben Bernanke (9:30am), Existing Home Sales (10am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Lots of reports due out today. Jobs # is key to the market as to whether it can early morning strength.
- Ben Bernanke speaking at 9:30am could also derail or encourage the bulls and add further volatility to early morning trading. Unlikely he’ll say something like yesterday that would cause immediate selling – I’m guessing he’ll be much more guarded with his words.
- Morning strength is a huge concern for me this morning – news out of Europe doesn’t seem to warrant such a strong move. Not when compared to the muted earnings reactions we’ve seen from blow-out numbers like Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC).
- Morning gaps, whether up or down have all been filled. Today would have to be a “True until proved otherwise.”
- Interesting scenario today…..Good Jobs # = mega Rally, Bad Jobs # = Wipe out significant amount of morning gains.
- Surprised investors are jumping on the bandwagon so early on with the significant amount of morning news that is due out.
- Close above 1099 would be a huge problem for bears. I’ll be also watching 1092 on the e-mini S&P futures for a break of the downward trend line in place.
- Market successfully rejected attempt by bulls to break through the 50-day moving average.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Stop-Loss change made in WTFC – new stop is $37.15
- Could add another short position to the portfolio on early morning strength.
- If possible, will look to hedge portfolio from a major run beyond where it opens up at.