Trading Plan for July 22, 2010

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): ESV (42.84), WTFC (37.15), SLAB (44.80), CERN (82.08), ALB (43.59), HIBB (26.65),  WRC (40.95), QQQQ (45.83), NSIT (14.79)

BIAS: 93% Short

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Ben Bernanke (9:30am), Existing Home Sales (10am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Lots of reports due out today. Jobs # is key to the market as to whether it can early morning strength.
• Ben Bernanke speaking at 9:30am could also derail or encourage the bulls and add further volatility to early morning trading. Unlikely he’ll say something like yesterday that would cause immediate selling – I’m guessing he’ll be much more guarded with his words.
• Morning strength is a huge concern for me this morning – news out of Europe doesn’t seem to warrant such a strong move. Not when compared to the muted earnings reactions we’ve seen from blow-out numbers like Apple (AAPL) and Intel (INTC).
• Morning gaps, whether up or down have all been filled. Today would have to be a “True until proved otherwise.”
• Interesting scenario today…..Good Jobs # = mega Rally, Bad Jobs # = Wipe out significant amount of morning gains.
• Surprised investors are jumping on the bandwagon so early on with the significant amount of morning news that is due out.
• Close above 1099 would be a huge problem for bears. I’ll be also watching 1092 on the e-mini S&P futures for a break of the downward trend line in place.
• Market successfully rejected attempt by bulls to break through the 50-day moving average.

Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Stop-Loss change made in WTFC – new stop is $37.15
• Could add another short position to the portfolio on early morning strength.
• If possible, will look to hedge portfolio from a major run beyond where it opens up at.