Trading Plan for December 30, 2011

Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Farm Prices (3pm)

Premarket Update (Updated 9am eastern):

• Futures are flat heading into the open. 
• Asian markets were up about 0.5% on average
• Europe is was slightly higher as well at 0.4%

Technical Outlook (S&P):

• The S&P is hovering just above the breakout level previous mentioned (above the downward trend off of the 7/7 highs). 
• The break out of this downward trend hasn’t been clean, and we really need to see it move above Tuesday’s highs (1269). 
• The S&P is slowly coming off of overbought conditions in the short-term. 
• SharePlanner Reversal Indicator is looking bullish
• Volume continues to dry out, which is typical for this time of year. 
• We are also above all the major moving averages, including the 200-day MA. The 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages are converging together to provide some nice support at around 1243.
• 30-min chart suggests that we could see a pullback to the 1230’s in the coming days – to the rising trend-line formed. 
• 5 min chart has a very nice break-out pattern in play. 

My Opinions:

• We’re only 6 points from yesterday’s close to finishing the S&P in the red on the year. Watch the 1257 level. 
• While the market is looking ‘bullish’ from a technical charting stand-point – the breakout isn’t clean, and would like to see us move away fromt the technical breakout level, as mentioned above, before getting too excited about the directional move. 
• Market is clearly in a mode of ignoring the bad economic news and rallying on the good. 
• I’m not expecting to see any crazy moves in the market today – should be a very low key day – breakout head fakes will likely be plenty. 

My Portfolio:

• 13% committed 13% long
• I’ve been on vacation for the past week, but back at it today. 
• I’m still holding my gold (GLD) position for now (barely). A drop below its long-term trend line (back to 2008) would be reason for me to dump the position. 

The Chart:

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