Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), 

Premarket Update (Updated 8am eastern):

  • Futures are slightly up, but has sold off on the GDP report. . 
  • Asian markets were down about 0.5% on average
  • Europe is trading higher this morning at about a 1.2% clip. 

Technical Outlook (S&P):

  • A break of the downward trend off of the 7/7 highs, can be broken today if we manage to close above 1257.
  • As we continue to trade in a triangle pattern, whose range continues to tighten by the day, watch for support on any major sell-off to kick in at at 1199.
  • Support/buying kicked in yesterday at the 10-day and 50-day moving average. 
  • VIX continues to trade very bullish, trading in negative territory yesterday, despite the market doing the same yesterday prior to the rally we saw. 
  • On the 30 minute chart, look for a move below the 1209 support level. 
  • The 5-minute chart shows resistance near 1244-45.
  • Expect volume to dramatically dry up between now and the end of the year. 
  • Note the larger downward channel that we are in as shown below.

My Opinions:

  • Market is clearly in a mode of ignoring the bad economic news and rallying on the good. 
  • This market looks like it wants to go suddenly go up on the light volume this week, which is easy to drive prices higher into year-end for window dressing purposes. 
  • Yesterday’s intraday activity is a perfect example as to why you have to take gains in this market on strength. 
  • The only way I could bring myself to adjust my longer-term bearish outlook on this market is if we break above the aforementioned downward trend-line off of the 7/7 highs. Then the entire outlook would be different for the market.

My Portfolio:

  • 13% committed 13% long
  • Sold out of TZA yesterday at 28.20 (from 28.29) for a 0.3% loss. After holding since Monday. 
  • I’ll continue to hold GLD (long) for now. A drop below its long-term trend line (back to 2008) would be reason for me to dump the position. 

The Chart:

22-S&P 500 Market Analysis


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