Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): XLF (14.02), V (68.99), INTC (19.75)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 32% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Treasury STRIPS (3pm).
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures up slightly.
- Jobless claims will set the tone. Employment # tomorrow will really shake things up.
- Bears had 2 great opportunities to push this market much lower this year and failed both times. I don’t see another opportunity like that happening again this year.
- Earnings season is wrapping up and it can be concluded as being a surprising positive for the markets.
- S&P holding the 200-day moving average incredibly well. 1131 on the S&P is in play today as well. We break that, I think we rally big-time.
- With the state of the US economy the way it is, I still believe there is a day of reckoning for the bulls. They just haven’t quite embraced it yet (nor has the bears apparently!).
- I think right now the charts are looking as good as they have all year for buying (can’t believe I am saying that). That isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but I do believe the odds are strongly in the bulls favor right now.
- Not overly worried about the employment number tomorrow. They keep finding ways to not make it look “too-bad” up to this point, why should we expect any different from the Feds.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Look to add additional 1-2 positions today. Added Intel (INTC) yesterday.
- Continue seeking out solid long setups.
- Positioning myself for the possibility of an end of year run.
- Whether I fade the gap or not this morning will depend on the reaction to the jobless claims (if there is a gap to fade – right now we are flat).
- Changed the stop-loss in XLF by raising it to 14.02 from 13.90.