Trading Plan for April 26, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): DISCK (36.79), RAX (43.46), HRB (17.39), GOOG (517.00)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 40% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): FOMC Meeting Begins, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are up slightly heading into the open.
• Asian markets were down close to 1%, European markets are currently up between 0.3% and 0.5%.
• Like yesterday, we are looking at an open that will challenge the S&P 1340 stronghold.
• We were unable to breakthrough it yesterday, but even though we are not breaking resistance, we are not selling off hard either, and ultimately I believe that will lead to us closing above 1340 in the very near-term.
• In doing so, we nullify the much talked about double-top being formed, and instead we’ll see new recovery highs instead. 
• Volume was very weak yesterday, showing that there should be little concern taken from the small amount of selling that we got yesterday.
• Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has been formed on the daily charts – will confirm the pattern at a close above 1340. 
• Higher-low has been established at 1294. 
• Market is overbought in the short-term.
• Keep in mind that the Fed is meeting today, and even holding a lunch-time press conference tomorrow – which is new. No idea what to expect there. Could be that they want to explain possible bad-news that could be contained within their FOMC Statement.
• Silver is looking like it is in the process of rolling over here based on volatility and volume levels.
• After 1340, minor resistance at recent highs of 1344, and major resistance at 1430. Between those two marks there is no other price resistance.
• My conclusion: Very strong chance we breakthrough and hold 1340. If so, I will become more aggressive in my trading.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Took a small loss -0.7% on shorting SLV yesterday (dumb, I know)
• Tightened the stop-loss on DISCK.
• Added HRB at $17.77 to the portfolio yesterday, as well as GOOG at $524.80.
• Another strong move in RAX, would likely lead me to book my gains in the position.
• Tech plays are performing very well right now, and will likely be the focus of my trading going forward.
• Will look to add an additional 1-2 new positions today should the market climb and stay above 1340.
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas (as well as everyone else’s).