• SP 500 Market Analysis 6-20-13

Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 2.5% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded 2.3% lower.
  • US futures are trading over 20 points lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (8:58am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX is trading below the 50-day moving average, and off more than 46 points since Bernanke spoke yesterday which was 3 hours worth of trading hours – quite the sell-off. 
  • Price action from SPX yesterday created a bear-flag that was confirmed with today’s open. 
  • We are now trading below the lower-Bollinger Band as well. 
  • This market has become extremely bearish within a matter of hours, which can happen from time-to-time. 
  • This is the result of what happens when the fate of the market is put into one man’s hand (i.e. Ben Bernanke) where anything he says can make a market sink or soar. 
  • 1601 is the key price support to watch today. 
  • Tuesday’s price move above 1648 and the 20-day moving average has resulted in a huge market fakeout. 
  • VIX is closing in on 20. 
  • We broke the rising trend-line off of the November lows at 1626. If this holds, it is a very bearish development. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-20-13

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