Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.6% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 0.8% higher.
  • US futures are slightly higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), International Trade (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX managed to rally yesterday off of the rising trend-line that it tested perfectly and held. 
  • We finished just a shade above oversold territory – something the SPX and Dow has yet to dip into even once this year. 
  • The Dow has managed to finish higher on 20 straight Tuesdays. Quite astounding when you think about it. 
  • Volume remains elevated over the last two trading sessions. 
  • Assuming that recent history holds, I expect that we will rally higher from here after breaking key support levels on Friday – just as we’ve seen on three previous occasions. 
  • My bias for trading continues to remain to the long side. 
  • After yesterday’s bounce, we are now trading back inside of the consolidation box. 
  • We’ve seen three pullbacks besides the current one since the November lows were established. All three had a moment where key support was broken, only for the SPX to bounce each time the following day and resume the upward climb. 
  • Each time we get oversold in the slightest bit, we have bounced hard and has marked the end of the pullback. We are at this point already. Let’s see if tradition holds. 
  • 30-minute chart appears overly bearish as it has a good bit of resistance that it needs to push through today. 
  • 1626 represents the rising trend-line off of the November lows. 
  • We finished May in positive territory for the seventh straight month. We haven’t seen that happen since the market market bottomed out in March of 2009. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed out LUV at $13.89 (after divi) for a -2.5% loss. 
  • Added KSS at $51.83
  • May look to add a new position or two if the market can show me a decisive bounce today. 
  • Long HLIT at 6.08, HUM at $80.60, AMZN at $267.21, CF at $191.35, APA at $84.95
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-04-13

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