Today’s Trading Plan: Turkey Ruining Thanksgiving Rally

Technical Outlook:

• SPX failed to add to its gains yesterday, and now a retraction is possible today, with futures plunging over news of Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane for crossing over into Turkish airspace. 
• The year of the headline strikes again – random global events triggering fear in the stock market. 
• More times than not though, these random news events have been a dip buy opportunity for the bulls. This event isn’t likely to trigger World War III. Instead, necessary saber-rattling must be done on both sides so they can allow their electorate to see their disgust with the events that unfolded. 
• On the 30 minute chart, SPX needs to hold the 2078 level, which is likely to be broken by the time the market opens. There is strong support here and a break would confirm a double top on the time frame. 
• Volume this week is expected to be weak with the Thanksgiving holiday upon us. As the week progresses, expect lighter volume to persist. 
• The 200-day moving average is back in play today as it currently sits at 2065. 
• SPX inverse head and shoulders pattern still in play unless it loses support at 2019. 
• VIX climbed a meager 1% to 15.62 yesterday. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) has flat-lined over the past three days as it sits at 50%. 
• Breaking the declining resistance off of the May highs of this year, is of high importance here to the sustainability of this market. 
• Establishing a convincing higher-high on the current rally is of high importance here, otherwise bulls risk getting trapped in consolidation for the foreseeable future. 
• This is the Thanksgiving holiday week, which is traditionally a very bullish week for trading. The markets will be closed on Thursday and only open until 1pm on Friday. 
• For twelve years straight, the market over the course of the last 30 trading days has yielded a net positive gain, and reinforcing the concept of the “Santa Rally”.
• A rate hike is expected out of December’s Fed meeting. However, I still would not be surprised if the Fed backed out of raising rates yet again. They’ve been doing just that for years now. 

My Trades:

• Did not sell any positions yesterday. 
• Added one additional long position yesterday. 
• Will consider adding one to two new long position to the portfolio today, while also managing the profits on existing positions. 
• 70% Long / 30% Cash
• Remain long: MSFT at $53.88, FB at $104.85, TSO at $113.98, BIDU at $199.21, INFN  at $21.65,  and one additional trade.
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: