Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):
- Europe is trading -0.2% lower.
- Asian markets traded in a wide/mixed range, from -0.29% up to +2.2%.
- US futures are slightly up ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Treasury International Capital (9am), Industrial Productions (9:15am), E-Commerce Retail Sales (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- After spending time in positive territory early on, the market gave back its gains for the third straight day.
- However, there was some signs of life as the market managed to rally into the close.
- The market is extremely oversold on both the daily and weekly charts – but much more so on the weekly. Look for some strength next week during Thanksgiving week.
- But let the market show you its hand first before jumping in heavy on the long side.
- Volume during the sell-off has been for the most part average.
- Stocks like Apple (AAPL) are going to have to decide whether they are going to bounce at critical support levels. Failure to do so could drag Nasdaq down even further.
- For the second straight day, the the price action rode the lower bollinger band but without breaking it at the close.
- Looking at the weekly chart, we’ve typically bounced after testing the lower bollinger band on the weekly chart, which is currently at 1341, and is my target for a bounce – just like we did on 6/1.
- Market remains fixed in oversold territory, and setting up for a Thanksgiving bounce next week (typically bullish for trading).
- Price Support at 1355 was broken as well.
- If there is a rally in the coming days, I’d look for 1404 to be targeted resistance.
- Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year.
- 30-min chart show s the possibility for some consolidation.
- VIX remains just a shade below 18.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Covered SODA at $34.34 from $35.69 for a 3.8% gain.
- Covered HOLX at $19.57 from $20.16 for a 2.93% gain.
- Covered CAKE at $33.16 from $33.26 for a 0.3% gain.
- Remain short Short CLNE at $12.88.
- Will begin adding 1-2 new long positions to the portfolio to gear up for a market bounce.
Chart for SPX:
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