• freeze oil

Technical Outlook:

  • Two straight days of consolidation at the rally highs. freeze oil
  • Weakness this morning across the board in the indices as a result of a failure for oil producing countries to agree upon a freeze in production. 
  • As a result, USO is looking at a potential double top in the short-term as it starts to sell-off again. 
  • Declining resistance off of the July 2015 highs is a real threat to the market sustaining the current rally. A test of this downtrend should take place at around 2100. 
  • Pullback on the 30 minute SPX chart, current has the look of a bull flag pattern – but that could be all for naught with the gap lower expected this morning.  
  • Volume on SPY improved Friday but still slightly below average and still seeing the 50-day moving average of volume decline as well. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) still elevated and relatively unchanged from Friday’s action. 
  • VIX falls for a fourth straight day, and is marching lower towards key support at 13-ish. 
  • The Russell 2000 index is testing its 200-day moving average again for a third straight time – none of which it has been able to break through. But no sharp rejection has been seen either. 
  • The market has been strong on the weekly chart rallying 7 out of the last 9 weeks. 
  • Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market reverse very soon here, and start heading back lower again. I’ve seen a lot of late stage breakouts in individual charts of late, that trend higher for a few days before taking on huge amounts of selling thereafter. I’m not saying this will certainly happen, I am just saying to be aware of it. 
  • April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
  • Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

  • Did not place any trades yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Currently 10% Long / 90% Cash
  • Remain long TLT at $129.52
  • Will look to add short or long exposure here today depending on the direction the market decides to take. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Trading Block

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-18-16

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