Pre-market update:

• Asian markets traded 0.5% lower.  
• European markets are trading 0.5% lower.
• US futures are trading flat ahead of the market open. 
  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), FHFA House Price Index (9), Consumer Confidence (10), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

• Yesterday started off so great for the bulls, but closed with a false breakout that resulted in the SPX failing to hold the new highs into the close. 
• With yesterday’s action, the bulls have to be careful not to let yesterday’s decline result in downside today. In doing so, the bears could easily become re-inspired to push this market lower. 
• Favor is still in the bulls corner, but they should be cautious and treat yesterday as a warning signal. 
• I reduced my long exposure by 33% because of the afternoon sell-off yesterday.
• Volume was elevated yesterday, which is more than we’ve seen during any day during the rally off of the low February lows. 
• Third time in the past four sessions where SPX has failed to break above the all-time highs. Instead it faced immediate, but not heavy selling pressures. 
• Watch the 10-day moving average climbing quickly and whether it holds on any test of it – currently at 1830.
• Overall the consolidation over the past five days has been welcomed and necessary for the market after a 100+ point run on SPX
• SPX continues to remain overbought since 2/11 and can do so for extended periods of time without a problem. 
• If the bears could hold their ground here and push this market below last week’s lows today, you could see fears of a possible double top on the SPX daily chart emerge. 
• Two support levels to watch to day are 1825, 1809. The latter of which should result in more bears coming to the table to short this market. 
• The biggest technical support level is the strength SPX found from the trend line that started off of the August ’13 lows. 
• Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

• Closed out UA yesterday at $115.55 for a 5.5% gain. 
• Closed out AXL at 19.56 for a 0.3% gain. 
• Added two new long positions yesterday. 
• Remain long SLB at 90.48, NBL at 67.10
• Will consider 1-2 new positions based on market conditions.  
• Long 40% / Cash 60% 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: