Today’s Trading Plan: Playing Bulls For Fools

Technical Outlook:

• One of the most volatile quarters ever ended on a quiet note yesterday pulling back ever so slightly. 
• Today’s morning weakness is looking at a respectable gap down. These gaps downs how been difficult for the bears to do anything with, often times leading to eventual, same-day, market rallies. 
• Last April had a fairly significant down-day to start the month. History is apparently trying to repeat itself. 
• Some distributional behaviors from the market over the last two days on the 30 minute chart. 
• On the same time frame looking at the SPX, bears would need to push the market below 2020 to put in a lower-low. That applies to the daily chart as well. 
• SPY volume ticked higher yesterday but still well below recent averages. 
• VIX attempting to bounce off of the support level going back to the October lows of last year. 
• Oil continuing to sell off quietly, down another 3% in the pre-market and looking to drop for the eight straight day and ninth time in the last ten days. 
• T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is trading still at its recent highs, suggesting that stocks are not yet giving up any gains of late. 
• SPY looking to break below the 5 and 10-day moving averages today. This has been a consistent bounce area for the market. Look for where price action on SPX closes relative to these MA’s. 
• Today will mark the end to one of the most volatile quarters the market has ever seen, and the first time since 1933 that the market has dropped over 10% and finished in the green in the same quarter – that is as long as 2044 holds today. 
• Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 
• Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average. 

My Trades:

• Added one new swing-trade yesterday. 
• Sold EMN yeserday at 72.41 for a 1.8% loss. 
• Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
• Remain long TLT at $129.52, MJN at $82.05, AMZN at $581.21
• Will look to add 1-2 new additional positions today if dip buyers show any desire to buy up the early weakness.  
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: