Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.8% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded -0.8% lower. 
  • US futures are moderately lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Wholesale Trade (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX continued the push lower yesterday, with selling persistent throughout the day. 
  • On a technical note, SPX closed below the 200-day moving average without a fight. 
  • Price is currently well outside of the lower-bollinger band. 
  • Short-term we have, surprisingly, yet to get oversold in this market. 
  • New channel to the down side has formed and price is trading nicely inside of it, but with yesterday’s sell-off it is touching the lower band, which means we could be setting up for a bounce in the coming days. 
  • Back in October we traded outside of the lower bollinger band and remained out there for two straight days, before bouncing back to the 20-day moving average. 
  • Volume, though less on Thursday than the previous session, was still notably higher than normal. 
  • Biggest wave of selling that we’ve seen since bouncing off of the 6/4 lows.
  • Bear-flag confirmation as we had talked about before occurred at 1410. 
  • A lower-low was established at 1403 as well as a previous lower-high. All bearish developments of an established downtrend. 
  • Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year. 
  • The 30-minute chart also validates the daily chart with the well-defined downtrend that is in place. 
  • Divergence in the VIX yesterday as it closed lower on the day at 18.48. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Shorted CAKE at $33.26.
  • Shorted LULU at $70.00.
  • Remain short SODA at $35.69.
  • May consider closing 1 of my 3 short positions this morning if th emarket continues moving lower. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-09-12

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