Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.3% lower.
  • Asian markets traded mixed and 0.2% higher.
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Heavy sell-off yesterday comes close to nullifying the breakout. 
  • Now we are back into the consolidated range. 
  • A break below 1538 would result in a more extended pullback. 
  • 1529 respresents the bottom of the rising channel that started back in November. 
  • For the first time in quite some time we see above average volume accompany the heavy sell-off. 
  • We broke below the 10 and 20-day moving averages yesterday, creating some additional bearishness for the markets today. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • VIX popped back into the 14’s. 
  • I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-04-13

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