Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.3% lower.
- Asian markets traded mixed and 0.2% higher.
- US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Heavy sell-off yesterday comes close to nullifying the breakout.
- Now we are back into the consolidated range.
- A break below 1538 would result in a more extended pullback.
- 1529 respresents the bottom of the rising channel that started back in November.
- For the first time in quite some time we see above average volume accompany the heavy sell-off.
- We broke below the 10 and 20-day moving averages yesterday, creating some additional bearishness for the markets today.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- VIX popped back into the 14’s.
- I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time.
- Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold BWLD at 90.14 yesterday for a 4.2% gain.
- Bought CRI yesterday at $58.30.
- Sold SODA at $48.50 for a -3.5% loss.
- Sold DISH at $36.71 for a -3.9% loss.
- Remain Long AAP at $81.66.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:

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