Today’s Trading Plan: Nasdaq Breaking

Technical Outlook:

• Another last minute save by SPX to rally price from negative territory to positive in the final 30 minutes. 
• This is becoming the norm of late to spend the day in a weakened state only to rally in the final minutes. 
• Massive head and shoulders pattern forming on the SPX 30 minute chart. It confirms on a break of 2077. 
• SPX is wedged between the 5 and 10-day moving averages. You may see a downside crossover today as they are only 2 points apart. 
• Apple (AAPL) reported earnings last night after the bell and missed expectations. As a result the Nasdaq continues to weaken. 
• Nasdaq is by far the weakest of all the indices right now as it starting to roll over on the charts and now trading below the 20-day moving average. A break below 4808 would establish a lower low for the chart. 
• Volume on SPY increased yesterday but still well below recent averages. 
• Advancers have been incredibly strong of late despite weak or minimal moves from the market as a whole. This is a rare phenomenon. 
• Today the FOMC Statement comes out at 2pm eastern. Don’t fall for the initial move that often results in a market head-fake. 
• SPX has closed above the previous week’s lows for 10 straight weeks. The record is 13 weeks – as you can see, we are in some rare air here, and the likelihood that it persists isn’t very favorable. 
• A break below 2073 on SPX would end the streak. 
• It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
• April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
• Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

• Did not add any new swing trades yesterday. 
• Covered USO at 10.82 yesterday for a 0.9% loss. 
• Currently 10% Short / 90% Cash
• Will look to add 1-2 new short positions today if the market seeks to push lower. Will flip to the long side if price action can break out of the current trading range. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: