Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading mixed/flat.
  • Asian markets traded -0.5% lower.
  • US futures are moderately higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • First significant sell-off since 4/17 in the markets. It was warranted and don’t believe it is a game-changer yet. 
  • The biggest worry for the bulls is if the bears can confirm the double top that is forming here by pushing below 1536. 
  • A lot of apprehension in the markets ahead of the Friday’s Employment number. 
  • Volume has been higher than what we have been seeing of late. 
  • The sooner the bulls can push above the 1600 level, the sooner some of this market apprehensions can clear up. A number of traders believe we might be in an early roll over phase. 
  • FOMC Statement yesterday was really just a non-event. 
  • SPX firmly in overbought territory.
  • 1570 remains a key rising support level that was formed off of the channel that started back in November. 
  • VIX settled in at 14.5 – Some what of a bearish divergence since the VIX couldn’t come close to making new lows with the market making new highs. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-02-13

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