Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):

  • Europe is -0.6% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded +0.5% higher. 
  • US futures are down over 1% ahead of the open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Stocks rallied hard yesterday but failed to get above the 50-day moving average and remains fixed in a bear-flag pattern. 
  • Stocks look to sell-off today, showing a huge gap ahead of the open. A potential bearish kicker that could lead to the next market downturn. 
  • Presidential election now off the books, market can now move beyond uncertainty in regards to who will be the next leader of the free world. 
  • Watch the uptrend off of the 6/4 lows, because if that breaks, it simultaneously will beak the bear-flag as well. 
  • Remember as well, that bears have difficulty often times with huge gap downs, often times resulting in a push higher after the first hour of trading
  • The 20-day moving average is dipping below the 50-day moving average for the first time since 7/6/12. 
  • A key price level for the bears is 1403 (recent lower-lows).
  • Triple-top confirmed on the SPX over the past two months. 
  • Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows. 
  • VIX below 18.
  • Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold JRCC at $4.75 from $4.57 for a 3.9% gain. Sold due to earnings coming out. 
  • Sold AGU yesterday at $107.11 from 106.23 for a 0.8% gain for the same reason. 
  • Covered ESRX at 55.40 from 61.51 for a 9% gain. 
  • Currently no positions in the portfolio. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-07-12

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