• markets yellen dovish

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX had a solid day yesterday following dovish remarks about future rate increases from Janet Yellen. 
  • Her dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 
  • Volume yesterday on the SPY was notably higher than recent days, but still well below current averages. 
  • The biggest technical development that took place yesterday was the break of the downward trend-line off of the November highs of last year. 
  • Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average. markets yellen dovish
  • The 5-day moving average saw price spike above and through it yesterday. 
  • Follow through today will put SPX on new rally highs. 
  • VIX dropped a hard 9.3% yesterday and is back at recent lows. T2108 rallied back a strong 5.3% yesterday to close at 86.69. 
  • Nice higher-low formed and put in place on SPX 30 minute chart. Will look to establish a higher-high today. 
  • Oil continues to weaken, with USO dropping five straight sessions and six of the last seven. The drop off of recent highs has had little consequence for the market. 
  • Everything above SPX 2040 poses a lot of resistance for the market. However, the market’s behavior and strength in late, suggests that price action will be able to push through. 
  • Overbought conditions have actually managed to work themselves off some in the short-term. 
  • The market so far, is looking like it is working off overbought conditions through time rather than price. 
  • It is very possible right now, that we continue to rally into May before the market sees any strong renewed selling interest, much like the case of 2008 where a similar event took place before the rest of the year was mired in heavy selling. 
  • Bears should be targeting a break of last week’s lows on the 30 minute chart to jump start the sell-off. 

My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 3-30-16

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